European bourse consolidation shows no sign of slowing: Euronext has proposed a €399 million all-share takeover of Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange. Shareholders might have expected more fixed income, low volume business growth with the “innovate 2027 plans”.
Michael Sanderson, analyst at Barclays, estimates it will only bring low value to the group.
He said in a note published 2 July: “Assuming that negotiations are completed and any transaction is concluded in 2026, based on Bloomberg consensus for Athex future earnings we estimate accretion would be lower than 2% on full year 2028 estimate base.” But added that Euronext track record at integrating cash market exchange acquisition means that “This type of market consolidation should be well received by shareholders, even if the accretion is only very limited”.
Hubert Lam, and Christian Holstein, analysts at Bank of America agreed: “ENX has a strong track-record of achieving synergy targets; it achieved 130% and 115% of initial targets in the Irish and Oslo Bors acquisitions, respectively”
Market participants might have expected more focus following the launch of the “Innovate for growth 2027” in November 2024. Euronext had said: “Our strategy relies on three priorities: (i) accelerate growth in non-volume business, (ii) expand the FICC1 trading and clearing franchise and (iii) build upon our leadership in trading” but had also stressed that they would continue to “execute external growth opportunities, in line with its investment criteria.”
Read more: Euronext reports Q3 revenue growth; announces 2027 goals
Euronext said it is in talks with the Athex board about buying up to 100 per cent of the Greek market operator but stressed that any formal bid will depend on due diligence and regulatory clearances. Euronext’s indicative terms offer Athex investors 21.029 of their shares for one new Euronext share, implying a price of €6.90 and valuing the bourse at about €399 million based on Euronext’s €145.10 close on 30 June.
Deutsche Bank is advising Euronext on the deal, Athex declined to comment.
“There can be no certainty, at this stage, that this would result in any agreement or transaction,” the exchange operator cautioned, adding that a deal would “deliver on Euronext’s ambition to consolidate European capital markets with growth and synergy opportunities.”
Athens would become Euronext’s ninth exchange with a combined market value over €6 trillion and giving the group, which already handles roughly a quarter of all lit cash-equity trading in Europe, a foothold in the south-eastern corner of the Euro zone.
The potential acquisition comes as Greek stocks and bonds have been outperforming the benchmark. Athex composite is up about 13 per cent this year after a near-40 per cent surge in 2024. In 2024 Greek bond spreads over equivalent bunds traded below that of French bonds, quite the reversal from the European crisis of the early 2010s. Volume on the Athens lit market is averaging €3 billion a month this year as per BMLL data.
Euronext carries on its consolidation strategy: It bought the Irish Stock Exchange for €137 million in 2018, Oslo Børs VPS in 2019 and Italy’s Borsa Italiana for €4.4 billion in 2021, while rival SIX has just absorbed Aquis to bolster its own pan-European footprint.
