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What’s Next In Fixed Income Trading? AI

Artificial intelligence has established a toehold on institutional fixed income trading desks, but the real action will be in coming years.

“Data, data science and AI,” BlackRock Head of Global Trading Supurna VedBrat said when asked what’s next in fixed income.

Speaking Thursday morning at WBR’s Fixed Income Leaders Summit in Philadelphia, VedBrat said emerging technology has the potential to change trading strategies on the buy side as well as the sell side.    

Supurna VedBrat, BlackRock
Supurna VedBrat, BlackRock

“AI gives us the ability to truly augment human intelligence with computing power, and be able to do that at scale,” VedBrat said in a conversation with Tradeweb President Billy Hult.

BlackRock, which VedBrat likened to a microcosm of the buy side as a whole, is in the preliminary stages of deploying AI, with much of the focus so far on small, “low-touch” transactions.  

“You don’t need human intelligence to click trades,” VedBrat said.  BlackRock has automated some trading functions, which has evolved the role of human traders to more like risk managers who oversee trading flow.

AI stands to gain with the proliferation of data, and the move to the cloud that will strengthen computing power. The new landscape will feature data and AI overlaid onto current business processes — a combination of humans and technology rather than a ‘versus’, VedBrat said.

Relationships

As technology drives efficiencies on the trading desk, personal relationships still underpin the business.  

“Relationship management is very critical, especially if you want to stay relevant and be a driver of change,” VedBrat said. 

With $6.5 trillion in assets, every vendor of technology and brokerage services would want a direct line into BlackRock, but VedBrat explained its not feasible to connect to everyone. Instead, BlackRock has close connections to a manageable number of broker-dealers — perhaps a half dozen — and connects to others via electronic trading platforms such as Tradeweb, which can aggregate the next 100 biggest liquidity providers. 

VedBrat said the one-stop-shop vendor model has faded over the past few years, and firms instead compete on different business models. “We want to to partner with people based on their strengths,” she said. “We don’t want to spend time and energy” working with firms that offer many products but may not do anything especially well. 

Regarding talent management, BlackRock looks for people with different experiences, from diverse areas, and who represent different age groups.

“I try to create an environment in Global Trading that’s much more about innovation and agility —  mixing up different ways of thinking to be able to solve problems,” VedBrat said. “It’s important that you are passionate, and your purpose is aligned with the firm’s purpose.”

Overconfidence Harms SFTR Preparedness

European banks are whistling past the graveyard regarding their preparedness for the Securities Financing Transaction Regulation’s March 2020 deadline, according to recent polls.

For a project that many in the industry have described as more difficult than EMIR and MiFID II put together, only about half of the banks, 48%, surveyed by global consultancy Luxoft earlier this year have completed their cost-benefit analysis for the project.

Nearly 98% of the 331 banks polled responded that they were confident or very confident they would be ready.

“Yet, 76% of them do not have a trade repository in place or do not know whom they are going to use and whether they are going to build their systems internally or use a third-party provider,” said Geoff Hutton, EMEA regulatory specialist at Luxoft, during a recent webinar hosted by the London Stock Exchange Group’s UnaVista business.

When the same question was asked of the webinar’s audience, 27% of the audience was very confident in meeting the deadline, 54% were confident, and 18% were not confident at all.

“There is a large portion that is confident, but incredibly confident,” noted Marcus Jeffery, Global Head of Pre-Sales, Director, London Stock Exchange at UnaVista, and who moderated the panel.

“When identifying the required elements for SFTR reporting, many are realizing the overarching complexity of the field requirements,” he said. “Also, the need for effective reference data in support of the generation and validation of the reports the trade repository will process.”

Of the 155 data fields that SFTR requires firms to report, many will have no tolerance for deviation or slight tolerance at best.

“LEIs and UTIs will have no tolerances at all, and some of the economic fields will have very small tolerances, as the regulation currently stands,” said Steve Holland, product manager at UnaVista London Stock Exchange. “We’re talking one hour for time-related fields and 0.0005% for the principal field. That is about five pounds on a £ one-million principal trade.”

Preparing the front-, middle-, and back office systems will be a sizable task to which tier-one banks have allotted approximately $55 million for the project, according to Hutton.

“Although this is a large number, the confidence on that number is diluted because 48% of banks have performed the cost-benefit analysis,” he added. “It is quite hard to gauge where the spend will be.”

However, sourcing the talent for the project may be more complicated than acquiring the necessary funding.

Typically banks will hire contractors and domain-knowledge experts to handle projects like EMIR and SFTR, but the UK’s IR35 tax regulation could make it difficult for banks to hire the necessary contractors, said Hutton. “Certainly, it is interesting times.”

Data Race Accelerates

Matthew Hodgson, chief executive and founder of Mosaic Smart Data said the pace of change is so aggressive that the fintech, which provides real-time data analytics for capital markets, needs to form partnerships and has hired a scientific advisor.

Last week Mosaic said in a statement that it had hired Rama Cont, Oxford University professor of mathematical finance, as scientific advisor. Cont was appointed professor at St Hugh’s College Oxford last year. He previously held the chair of mathematical finance at Imperial College London and has 20 years of experience working with the financial markets.

Hodgson told Markets Media: “The pace of change is so aggressive that it is essential for us to form partnerships and collaborate, such as we have done with the European Space Agency.”

Last year Mosaic Smart Data and ESA Business Applications, the European Space Agency’s commercial arm, announced an alliance for the fintech to explore applying machine-learning models developed and used by ESA to fixed income, currency and commodity markets.

MSX, Mosaic’s platform, can generate real-time analytics on any set of fixed income, currencies and commodities from both voice and electronic trading. Hodgson launched the company after finding it impossible to get a consolidated view of data on all trades with one client across all products in his previous roles at Deutsche Bank and Solomon Brothers.

“Rama has deep experience and provides access to the newest techniques in academia and the best talent to bring into the company, so it is a natural fit,” he added.

Cont said that in the last two decades financial services firms have been flooded with a large quantity of messy, heterogeneous data and they may not have yet mastered the tools needed to extract useful information from this data. For example, datasets have multiplied 1,000 times in the past decade which was not expected.

“Combining market data with other sources such as internal data or text from newsfeeds on a large scale requires automation and is very challenging,” Cont added. “Firms know they may be sitting on a goldmine, but the gold is not easy to extract.”

The professor continued that in the past decade there has been enormous progress in machine learning and deep learning.

“Mosaic has expertise in data and we will focus on applications that are realistic and meaningful,” said Cont. “Anomaly identification in financial data allows firms to avoid risk, monitor behaviour and also provides sales opportunities.”

Matthew Hodgson, Mosaic Smart Data

Hodgson added that extracting value from data is becoming a key competitive advantage. He said:  “The collaboration with Rama will focus on transaction cost analysis and anomaly detection which also provides use cases for exchanges, ECNs and custodians.”

In April Mosaic Smart Data completed a $9m (€8m) investment round co-led by CommerzVentures and Octopus Ventures and which includes JP Morgan, an existing investor and client. Hodgson told Markets Media at the time that the funds will be used for product development as it expands into equities, for R&D into machine learning to provide more analytics, and to expand in the US and Asia.

“Mosaic initially focussed on Tier 1 sell side firms and is now expanding into regional firms and the buy side,” added Hodgson.

Buy-side need

Buy-side firms also need real-time analytics to examine their interaction with brokers and clients in order to improve service and profitability as margins are under pressure.

A new survey found that European fund managers have decided that, rather than just cost-cutting, they need to grow by gathering more assets and providing more alpha than their competitors. The primary approaches to achieving strategic priorities were achieving automation, 49%, and the creation of a golden source of data / investment book of record (42%) .

David Weaire, head of operations, investment at Investec Asset Management said in the report: “Having accessible, standardised data available to those making daily investment decisions is a key tool to optimise how these choices are made and improve the chance of finding alpha.”

WBR Insights and SimCorp, an asset management technology provider,  surveyed heads and directors of operations from 100  buy-side firms across the UK and Europe with more than €10bn in assets under management in the second quarter of this year.

Hans Otto Engkilde, Simcorp

Hans Otto Engkilde, managing director and senior vice president SimCorp UK, Northern Europe and Middle East, said in the report that the buy-side front office needs to be able to work from uniform, accurate data, which can be understood and evaluated by every link in the investment chain.

“Once centralised and standardised, this data can be used to carry out increasingly technical performance measurement analytics that can show managers the true value of their trades – either good or bad,” added Engkilde. “Having total control of the design and access of these programmes is something asset management chiefs now realise can add to performance as well as smooth internal operations.”

The study continued that this data hub can help managers explore how artificial intelligence, machine learning and other emerging technologies can open up new opportunities.

“In a market that has rediscovered its will to win, the agility and quick response times that can be achieved by using automation and sleek, unified systems will separate the winners from the losers,” said the survey.

Imandra Explains “Black-Box” Financial Algos

Imandra, the artificial intelligence startup that has developed an automated reasoning engine, is working with large financial institutions so they can explain ‘black-box’ financial algos to their clients in order to improve their trading results.

Dave Aitken, Imandra

Dave Aitken, software engineer at Imandra, told Markets Media: “Imandra makes ‘black-box’ financial algos ‘explainable’ by analysing their decisions and demonstrating the corresponding effects to the operator (bank) and its clients.”

The firm was co-founded by Denis Ignatovich, previously head of the central risk trading at Deutsche Bank in London, and Grant Passmore, a mathematician specialising in formal verification.

The startup won the UBS Future of Finance challenge in 2015 to use formal verification on financial systems, a technique used to develop software in safety critical industries such as air traffic control systems. Formal verification employs automated mathematical techniques to ensure system specifications are consistent and designed correctly, and can then be applied to test whether a live system is behaving in accordance with its specification.

Aitken continued that the platform combines its in-depth understanding of all the decisions that a venue makes together with trading data to create actionable client intelligence showing venue’s clients how the venue treats their orders. “Furthermore, Imandra will make recommendations to clients on how to improve their interaction with the platform,” added Aitken.

Matt Bray, Imandra

Matt Bray, European team lead at Imandra, told Markets Media that the platform takes governance to a fundamentally new level. He explained that when performing an ongoing audit of a venue, Imandra reconciles every single decision a production system makes with the design. When there is a discrepancy, Imandra quickly identifies the deviation and makes it easy for operators to understand and fix it.

“For example, using Imandra a bank can explain to its clients what factors contributed to their rank in the order book and recommend specific changes to their interaction with the venue to improve their access to liquidity,” added Bray.

In April Imandra completed a $5m funding round led by AlbionVC, IQ Capital Partners and LiveOak Venture Partners.

This month Imandra announced the the public release of its region decomposition functionality, a new feature in its reasoning as a service cloud platform for the automated analysis of safety-critical systems and algorithms to allow early identification of problematic scenarios.

Denis Ignatovich, co-founder and co-chief executive of Imandra, said in a statement: “When you’re playing chess, you try to think N-steps ahead – what your opponent might do and how the game may evolve. All of the possible configurations of the chess board comprise its so-called ‘state-space’. Complex systems like autonomous vehicles work similarly, except the set of possible states is virtually infinite. Region Decomposition allows you to explore, analyse, visualize and understand it.”

Video: Trends In China And Emerging Markets

Edward Duggan, Managing Director and Head of Sales Trading and Execution Services Asia at HSBC, shares his views on the major developments in China and Emerging Markets.

A Spring Awakening For Institutional Crypto

Program code - selective focus

The brutal “winter of crypto”, where cryptocurrency trading volumes plunged by as much as 85 percent from a January 2018 high, has been enough to dampen the enthusiasm of even the most ardent supporters of disruptive digital assets.

However, sentiment at TradeTech 2019 (the biggest annual European buy-side equity conference) was that the freeze may be melting, with the green shoots of spring sprouting up and perhaps piquing the interest of sophisticated investors. For those interested in the asset class, including us at Caspian, which has been actively involved in building tools to clear a path for institutional investors– the murmurings of a potential turnaround is encouraging news.

Examining the institutionalisation of cryptocurrencies was a standout panel on the TradeTech 2019 agenda. Panelists included key industry service providers – Caspian CTO Gerrit van Wingerden, Grasshopper CIO Tan T-Kiang, Bitstamp Head of Business Development Miha Grcar and the over capacity room was a clear signal that investors and other specialist industry players are clamoring for fresh insight about the burgeoning crypto asset class, as well as the tools available to better access it.

Regulation welcomed

The panel was on the whole supportive of moves to regulate the sector, agreeing that greater oversight could be a catalyst for more institutional investors entering crypto.

Recent action by Hong Kong regulator, the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), to introduce a new regulatory framework for exchanges is an example of recent moves to tighten up the crypto space. Under the proposed scheme, crypto exchanges will be able only to deal with institutional investors as part of a move to better protect the public. This plan has received a mixed reception from local industry players, who may be used to less oversight.

The panel agreed that serious, legitimate market participants are the ones looking for regulatory clarity, whereas those less scrupulous players, who may be shirking security best practice or puffing up trading volumes, are those that are actively wanting to stay in the dark.

The Securities and Exchange Commission itself currently faces a conundrum, with questions about the appropriate level of oversight over-regulation could stifle innovation, but not doing enough puts investors at risk of having their digital assets stolen or misappropriated.

Caspian’ s van Wingerden said he believed the sector would welcome clearer regulation, not only to protect investors but also because it may safeguard against industry participants themselves making large investments into infrastructure or technology, only to find the resulting offerings deemed non-compliant or illegal down the road.

Custody no longer a stumbling block

A lack of properly regulated custodial solutions has in the past inhibited the widespread adoption of crypto as an asset class, but panelists told the TradeTech audience that institutional-grade custody solutions had most
certainly arrived, with many more predicted to join.

In 2018 Fidelity became the first big name to enter the crypto custody space when it announced it was launching a separate company called Fidelity Digital Asset Services. The firm, which has over $7 trillion of client assets under administration, said that it will provide institutional clients, like hedge funds and family offices, with custody for cryptocurrencies including bitcoin. That same year Coinbase Custody officially opened for business with its first customers being crypto hedge funds, exchanges and Initial Coin Offering (ICO) teams.

In a sign of further growth in the crypto currency space, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, in April announced its cryptocurrency trading platform Bakkt had acquired Digital Asset Custody Company (DACC) a crypto custodian services company. At the same time Bakkt filed an application to enable it to serve as a Qualified Custodian for digital assets with the New York Department of Financial Services.

For the panel, these were all signs that crypto custody was maturing. “That obstacle has been surmounted, the lack of access to crypto-focused custodians, is starting to become much less of an issue than it was in the past,” van Wingerden said after the panel.

Settlement systems still lacking, but optimism remains

While there have been advancements in cryptofocused custody, the panel remained concerned about the lack of a prime brokers and settlement systems for crypto trading. The current model where a trading counterparty is also the custodian of the assets required for the transaction remains inherently risky, the panel said. The possibility for assets to be stolen if there is a security breach remains a key barrier preventing more institutional investors entering the space.

Connectivity and API availability was another point of discussion on the panel, with the consensus that current offerings are of poor quality and require institutional investors to run multiple web interfaces at once in order to trade. Additionally, most crypto exchanges still do not leverage the FIX protocol, meaning there is still additional work to be done in order to create better connectivity.

Despite these challenges, the panel was upbeat about the long-term future of crypto. For example, van Wingerden said he was optimistic about Security Token Offerings (STOs).

“The ability to digitize what were previously illiquid assets like private equity or collectables is certainly getting a lot of mindshare, and it will be interesting to see how important they become,” he said after the panel.

Bitcoin’s “gold-like” characteristics and the fact that cryptocurrencies are not correlated with traditional markets remains an attractive feature, van Wingerden said. He added that this was particularly true in countries
like Venezuela where hyperinflation has hit its currency hard. “These aren’t necessarily institutional investors, these are people using it in their daily lives,” he said.

Another reason for optimism is that the time spent during the “crypto winter” by companies like Caspian to iterate and build out their offerings for institutional investors in anticipation of a turnaround. Van Wingerden said the ongoing “crypto spring” recovery has also meant more demand for these enhanced tools, as sophisticated investor sentiment gradually increases.

“Caspian raised $19.5 million last October, of which part was used on research and development for our platform. Against this backdrop, now is the time for companies like ours to reap the rewards of the hard work during the winter and work even more closely with our clients who want access to sophisticated trading tools such as those offered by the Caspian platform,” he said.

About the Author

Robert Dykes, CEO and Co-Founder of Caspian, has served as TORA CEO for the past 15 years. Prior to that Robert spent 11 years in the enterprise software and high-tech industry in Europe, North America, and Asia at such companies as WebPartner and Audiosoft. Robert holds a B.A. in Economics from Princeton University.

New ETF Shifts Between Stocks And Bonds

Courtesy of Pixabay Images

WBI Shares debuted a brand new ETF that trades on the New York Stock Exchange that can shift its underlying assets between equities and fixed-income securities.

It’s stock-backed. No wait, it’s bond-backed. Hold a second, it can be backed by both.

WBI Shares debuted a brand new ETF that trades on the New York Stock Exchange that can shift its underlying assets between equities and fixed-income securities. Introducing the WBI BullBear Trend Switch US 3000 Total Return ETF (WBIT) that employs both an equity model and a bond model to determine its holdings.

WBIT’s investment objective, according to the prospectus, is to seek current income with the potential for long-term capital appreciation while also seeking to protect principal during unfavorable market conditions.

According to ETF Trends, WBI Shares has been in the business of using trend models to optimize risk and return for domestic stock and fixed income exposures for nearly three decades. These models are fused into the company’s management system to provide bull or bear trend indications that “tighten or loosen” the firm’s risk management system.

The new ETF, which comes with a gross expense ratio of 0.68%, employs both an equity model and a bond model based on the markets.

“WBIT aims to optimize risk and return by looking first to the equity model when conditions are deemed favorable for equity,” WBI Shares wrote in the ETF’s fact sheet. “If the model indicates conditions for risk are high in equities, we then look to the bond model to determine preference for bond type and duration or cash.”

The equity model creates an indication whether risk is on or off by looking at both market trends and macroeconomic factors.

According to the fund’s prospectus, “The purpose of the equity model is to assess conditions likely to affect the relative performance of the All Cap equity market with respect to its sensitivity to the then current level of market risk and respond to only those investment environments that are likely to produce significant changes in market performance.”

The bond model looks at factors including interest rates, price momentum, yield, currency, and equity earnings to determine the optimal duration and credit quality for fixed income holdings. Based on these factors, the model determines the optimal duration and credit opportunities, including US Treasuries, corporate, or high yield.

“The purpose of the bond model is to assess conditions likely to affect the relative performance of selected segments of the fixed income market with respect to their sensitivity to credit quality and duration,” the prospectus explained. The fund will invest in debt securities including US treasuries, US investment grade corporate bonds, junk bonds, and ETFs and ETNs with exposure to the debt securities described.”

For more information on related topics, visit the following channels:

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Vanguard Takes Measured Approach To Blockchain

Jigsaw is a harmony among the group will not be impossible.

Global asset manager Vanguard has taken on multiple blockchain-based projects over the past few years and found the keys to success have been to start small and grow.

Blockchain technology first came onto Vanguard’s radar screen a few years ago, according to James Kearney, a principal and head of global investment operations at Vanguard and who spoke during The Summit for Asset Management 2019 in Brooklyn.

“I remember one day walking through our cafeteria and having one of our business system analysts from the investment management side of the business chasing me down and trying to explain to me what blockchain was, and why I was a dope if I was not using blockchain to serve my clients better,” he said

The asset manager found that moving the management of its indices onto the blockchain was a good fit, given the technology’s immutable nature.

“Index providers constantly send adds, deletes, corporate actions and changes, which is their version of what the constituency of their indices and sub-indices are,” he said. “Everyone has a different way of doing it, at different speeds, and in different formats. Some are emails, while others are data exchanges. It’s all over the place.”

Vanguard’s Investment Management Group started working with the Center of Research in Security Prices and blockchain-platform provider Symbiont to move a portion of the workflow on to the new technology.

The asset manager plans to move the rest of its indices onto the platform eventually.

“We think success for us will be all those asset managers around there and the various index providers using one giant distributed private network,” said Kearney.

He also cautioned that organizations should not try to swallow an elephant all at once while citing another blockchain project that would reduce settlement times to zero.

“It was a great and interesting idea that would help us in the long term, but it was gargantuan,” he said. “Thinking through it, our eyes were bigger than our stomach.”

Within six months of starting the project, Kearney was courted by an unnamed start-up and a depository, that had the same idea.
“They were running the same exact foot race to see who would be the first to implement a blockchain in a competitive way to solve this problem,” he said.

Vanguard decided that it would not be successful with this particular project due to its scale and the number of variants that could be involved.

“We are doing a little bit with it, but we thought it was going to be the next big thing and it really didn’t happen,” said Kearney.

SEC Mulls Additional Digital Exchange Requirements

Digital trading facilities that seek to trade SEC-registered securities will need to improve their operations as well as possibly take on additional regulatory requirement compared to existing self-regulatory organizations, according to the U.S. market regulator.

“The proliferation of new technologies and trading platforms belie the fact that many digital asset trading platforms still suffer from poor execution quality, wash trading, and other manipulative practices,” said Brett Redfearn, director of the Division of Trading and Market at the SEC during the regulator’s recent Fintech Summit in Washington, D.C.

Not wanting to emphasize “the dark side” of the nascent market, he noted that the Commission desires to foster innovation but balance it with investor protection.

Many digital trading facilities operators may think that if they move matching and trading for their platform and onto a public blockchain that they would not fall under the SEC’s exchange regulatory framework.

“This, however, would be incorrect,” said Redfearn. “It would disregard the Commission’s well-established framework for regulating exchanges. An entity facilitating the trading of securities should consider the totality of the activities and functionalities used to bring together the orders of buyers and sellers to determine if it meets the definition of an exchange.”

The Division of Markets and Trading and the Division of Enforcement clarified that the regulator considers whether an entity is an exchange by the activity occurring between the buyer and sellers and not the technology or terminology used by the trading platform’s operator in a joint-staff statement that the divisions issued in November 2018.

Redfearn also floated the idea that digital exchange operators might need to provide some fashion of investor protection for their disintermediated market.

“The protections created by the regulation of broker-dealers and investment advisors under Federal securities laws are largely absent when such intermediaries do not play a role of digital asset markets,” he said. “The question is then whether there should be greater responsibilities on the primary intermediary, the trading platform, to ensure that investors have the level of information required to make meaningful choices while trading in digital assets.”

While digital exchanges have incorporated functions that typically rested with broker-dealers, custodians, prime brokers, and “information/research providers,” the SEC needs to ensure that the proper investor protections are in place for each function, Richard Johnson, principal, market structure and technology at Greenwich Associates, told Markets Media.

“The SEC has been hinting for a while that exchanges need to register under the Exchange Act,” he added. “But when you are talking about informational responsibilities, it seems to speak more to investment advisor regulations.”

Wells Fargo Launches Prime Trade Services Group

Courtesy of Pixabay Images

Wells Fargo Corporate & Investment Banking announced the launch of its Prime Trade Services group.

The Prime Trade Services group will offer alternative and traditional investment managers a team of dedicated, experienced traders who will act as an extension of their clients’ investment teams. The group will give clients access to Wells Fargo Prime Services resources — including business consulting and capital introductions — and access to Wells Fargo’s innovative COMPASS and SHARP technology platforms, which provide comprehensive risk management, reporting solutions and metrics.

“Wells Fargo has a deep history of providing custom-tailored trading solutions for more than 15 years. This is the natural progression for our platform, as we look to bring the breadth and depth of our bank to our clients, and an exciting time in our industry to further invest in these capabilities,” said Jud Howson, head of Prime Trade Services at Wells Fargo. “Our trading team averages more than 20 years of experience, and we have been together in a bicoastal, distributed structure for more than 10 years. In addition, the technical capabilities and the products and services of our world-class Prime Services platform give us a distinct advantage.”

The suite of technology and trading products available to Prime Trade Services clients include outsourced trading, technology-driven portfolio management, broad trade execution capabilities in an open trading architecture, and integrated commission management solutions.

Prime Trade Services’ comprehensive high- and low-touch outsourced trading solutions are designed to deliver sophisticated and scalable trading resources to firms ranging from startups to complex institutional platforms, and can either execute the entire trading function or supplement the client’s in-house trading desk. These solutions allow Wells Fargo’s clients to focus on high-value, alpha-generating activities and convert the fixed costs and burdens of managing technology and people to a more efficient and capable, variable cost solution.

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